Photovoltaic forecasting approach (for grid operation and market integration at high PV penetration)

Background:In face of the growing number of variable renewable energy sources (particularly solar PV) in electrical networks, it becomes necessary to forecast this generation in a reliable and efficient way in order to support a better operation and planning of future energy distribution systems and to enable the integration of PV electricity into the short-term markets.

Benefits:Due to its detailed physical model and the bottom-up approach, LIST’s forecasting system is specifically powerful and accurate on single-site forecasts. Many data-driven forecasting algorithms, often applied to forecast the PV production of a portfolio of PV systems for utilities or other balance responsible parties, reach higher accuracies for large numbers of generators, distributed over a larger geographical area. While those forecast applications benefit from statistical effects (large numbers effect) and the smoothing of meteorological artefacts over larger regions, some applications require single-site forecasts for which the forecasting is much more challenging. Hence, our current forecasting approach provides state-of-the-art single-site forecasts for large portfolios of PV systems, which will in the future be complimented by a data-driven (machine learning based) module and the support of sky cam pictures for narrow geographical areas.

Applications:

• Distribution system operators for,
  • the active, forecast-based operation of grid components (such as OLTC transformers, storage and switches)
  • or in congestion forecasting and flexibility management (e.g. demand side management or flexibility procurement)
• Promotors of renewable-based energy sources and operators of larger scale or versatile dispersed PV systems (e.g. in direct marketing of PV electricity)
• Energy providers, aggregators or “balance responsible parties” in general e.g. in operation of virtual power plants or to complement the forecast of the residual load of their customers (becoming prosumers)
• Opportunity:

  LIST would be specifically interested in testing and implementing the developed approach in use cases of specific interest to single-site forecasts. Hence, implementing and testing our model in a precommercial demo in one of the following fields (or similar) would be favourable:

• Forecast-based smart gird operation at high PV penetration
• Congestion forecast / management
• storage management or flexibility management to enable integration of high shares of PV

• But also operation of virtual power plants or rather conventional forecast applications could be discussed.

• IP Status:No patent, Copyright.

Desired business relationship

Technology development

Licensing